Sudan referendum sign

Washington, January 7, 2011 -

Sunday begins a momentous period for Sudan. Will Africa’s largest country peacefully separate into two, or return to war? If history is a guide, things will likely be messy.

January 9th starts a week-long referendum on southern Sudan's secession. The vote was put on track by a 2005 peace agreement that ended a hellish civil war pitting the Arab Muslim north against the Christian and animist south (2 million dead, millions displaced). Thankfully, relative peace has held, for now.

The pending U.S.-supported plebiscite on Sudan has folks edgy. Just a few months ago, Secretary Clinton called Sudan a "ticking time bomb." Yet pessimists have turned optimists. That’s largely because Sudan’s indicted war criminal president Omar Hassan al-Bashir has struck a conciliatory tone, claiming he’ll live with an unfavorable result. I haven’t done a 180.

Even a successful vote next week is just the beginning of a dangerous, tricky transition. Two sides: Africa and Arabia, differing cultures, races and religions --the north looks at southerners with contempt and worse. They'll have six months to work out many contentious issues like security, borders, water, citizenship, etc. Plus, the north has failed to honor almost any commitment. Bashir has ruled for two decades because he's ruthless, not a peacemaker. Relinquishing Sudanese territory isn't a legacy he's eager for.

The biggest challenge is oil. Most reserves are in the south, but must be transported north for refining and exporting. Some say this creates "mutual reliance." Others, dare I say "realists," see a recipe for more conflict. Most problematic is the oil-rich town of Abyei, straddling north and south. It was to hold a vote on where its loyalties lie, but that's delayed. Bashir lets the south have the majority of the oil? Doubtful.

To get Bashir to play nice, the Obama Administration has been dangling a bucket of carrots, everything from getting off the state sponsor of terrorism list, lifting economic sanctions and debt relief. Less clear are the sticks that would hit Bashir if he blows-up the process. I've seen one observer suggest that the U.S. threaten missile strikes against strategic targets in the north. That’s not in the cards. This President wouldn’t do it, and there could be unintended consequences. There are other pressure points though.

Less grasped, the vote creates a new state in the north. Bashir will play up its Muslim identity, implementing sharia and getting closer to Libya, Egypt and others. As the former sanctuary of Osama bin Laden, it’s not hard to see Khartoum becoming a live terrorist threat.

So we better look beyond next week’s photos of jubilant Sudanese voters. I’ll be absolutely thrilled to be wrong. Sudanese have suffered enough. But this ride could get rough. Best be ready.